Android Piracy

The report is based on a survey and interviews of 75 Android developers conducted by Skyhook. Overall, about a quarter of all respondents (27%) think that app piracy is a major problem for their business on the Android platform. Another quarter (26%) of respondents thinks its “somewhat of a problem.” Still, while the vast majority of developers thinks  about half of all developers think their apps are not being pirated.

Where Do Users Get Pirated Apps?

While it’s hard to know where exactly these users are getting their pirated apps from, the developers think that piracy forums (41%) and  BitTorrent sites (26%) are the main sources. There are also quite a few developers (17%) who have seen users ask for refunds on copied apps. One issue that seems to be more prevalent in the Android Market than in other stores is the fact that it is apparently relatively easy for others to republish existing apps under a different name.

There are, of course, some anti-piracy measures that developers can implement, including Google’s own License Validation Library. Only half of all developers surveyed for this report actually use copy protection for the paid apps, though. Using copy protection, however, introduces a whole new set of issues, as users generally don’t like it and 62% of developers think they have lost sales because of it and 82% have found that it sometimes locks out legitimate buyers from using an app.

Solutions

Given that Android developers already make less from paid apps than iOS developers (Android users simply don’t buy as many apps as their Apple-toting counterparts), it looks as if app piracy on the Android platform is a major reason why some developers shy away from it. While developers could implement subscription models or monetize their apps through ads, this isn’t a solution for everybody and it looks as if the various market places and Google itself will have to get a bit more proactive in discouraging piracy.

The full (paid) report is available here.

Neither Apple nor Jobs provided more details about this decision, but as the Internet exploded with news reports about Jobs’ decision, most reporters noted that today’s announcement was likely related to Jobs’ 2009 liver transplant and his earlier leave of absence and surgery in 2004. Both of his earlier leaves were due to the pancreatic cancer his doctors discovered in 2004. Just like during his last leave, Apple’s COO Tim Cook will lead the company’s day-to-day operations.

Privacy

In his email, Jobs asks for privacy, a topic of heated discussions during his last leave, as his health is – according to many – closely linked to Apple’s performance. All Things D’s Kara Swisher, however, argues that Jobs deserves his privacy this time, “because the public Steve Jobs has given his large audience more than enough since he got back the last time he was sick.” It remains to be seen if Apple’s fans and stockholders will think the same, however.

Apple Stock

Given Jobs’ central role at Apple, it doesn’t come as a surprise that the company’s stock price quickly suffered after the news broke. In Frankfurt, the stock immediately dropped 7% from the previous day and never recovered. Undoubtedly, Apple’s announcement was timed to coincide with Martin Luther King Day, a day where the U.S. markets are closed. This should give Apple investors a chance to cool off before the markets open again on Tuesday.

The timing of today’s announcement also comes just one day before Apple is scheduled to reveal its quarterly earnings report (which most pundits expect to beat expectations) and before the company will celebrate the 10 billionth download from its app store. All of this should help ease the pressure on Apple’s stock and you don’t have to be a cynic to think that Apple considered these facts when it timed today’s announcement.

On GigaOm, Mathew Ingram wonders, however, if the stock can “withstand the absence of Steve Jobs.”

Succession

Another topic that quickly rose to prominence after the news broke was the question of Jobs’ succession. The Wall Street Journal today features a short profile of Tim Cook, calling him the company’s “CEO-in-waiting.” CNET’s Jonathan E. Skillings and Erica Ogg also note that Apple has privately acknowledged that it has a plan of success in place, but that the company refuses to make this plan public, as that would “damage the company’s ability to retain and recruit top executive talent.”

On his ITworld blog, Chris Nerney argues that, “while Jobs focuses on his health, Apple board must focus on its responsibility.” Also on ITworld, Ryan Faas wonders if Apple can “thrive without Steve Jobs at the helm.” His conclusion, after looking at Apple’s performance during Jobs’ last two leaves is that “Apple is [not] going to be slowed down in the least.”

Indeed, the general tenor in the tech world is that Cook would be a capable successor for Jobs and the right choice for filling in for him.

It remains to be seen if an old-style newspaper on the iPad will be able to make a significant impact on News Corp.’s bottom line. While details about the publication remain sparse, it currently seems as if the plan is to update the paper once per day – just like that newspaper you unsubscribed from years ago.

Dead on Arrival?

This slow update cycle is, of course, one of the main reasons why regular papers have lost so many readers over the last few years and I just can’t imagine that readers will flock to The Daily and subscribe (even at the low – rumored – price of $1 per week). There are plenty of news alternatives on the iPad right now, including excellent apps from the traditional newspapers like NYTimes (now that it doesn’t crash anymore), aggregators like the Huffington Post and web-only publications like Slate. Murdoch’s old-fashioned approach is the antithesis of what readers expect from a modern publication today.

Because of this, chances are that The Daily won’t be able to do much stand out from the competition (except, maybe, through in-depth features and smart investigative reporting). One area where it could stand out is in its design. So far, newspaper apps on the iPad and other tablets reproduce the traditional newspaper experience nicely, but we haven’t seen a lot of innovation on this front yet. In December, MediaMemo’s Peter Kafka reported that The Daily will feature “some kind of 3-D effect that lots of people are very excited about,” so there is some hope that the app will at least feature an innovative design.

What do You Think?

What do you think? Will The Daily be a massive success? Or will you stay away from it and read a paper that’s updated throughout the day?

Tips of the hat to MediaMemo’s Peter Kafka, by the way, who was the first to pinpoint the week of January 17 as The Daily’s launch window.

According to Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps, this situation won’t change much in the next two years.

Forecast: 44 Million Tablet Sales by 2015

Forrester just revised its US consumer tablet forecast for 2010 up to 10.3 million units. Next year, the company’s analysts believe, tablet sales will more than double to 24.1 million units – though the company also thinks that the “lion’s share will be iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012.” Looking ahead, Forrester forecasts that 82 million U.S. consumers will be using tablets in 2015 – with yearly sales reaching 44 million.

Replacement Rates More like MP3 Players than PCs

Another interesting aspect of this forecast is that Forrester believes that the replacement rate for iPads will be similar to that of MP3 players and iPhones – meaning consumers will upgrade these devices more often than, for example, PCs. Indeed, Forrester expects that a lot of first-generation iPad owners will buy the iPad2 – which will surely be released later this year.